TERMS OF REFERENCE
COUNTRY: Republic of Somaliland
PROJECT NAME: Somali Electricity Access project
PROJECT ID: P165497 GRANT NO: TF-A9095
ASSIGNMENT TITLE: Preparation of Indicative least cost Geo-spatial
electrification plan to achieve universal access.
PLACE OF ASSIGNMENT: Somaliland
Strategic Options Analysis for Grid and Off-Grid Rollout
1. Sector Background and context
The Government of Somaliland (the Government) is currently implementing Somali Electricity Project (SEAP), with grant funding from World Bank. The project development objective of SEAP is to expand access to electricity in targeted urban, peri-urban, and rural communities. SEAP consists of three components:
Component 1: Electrification of households and small businesses through standalone solar home systems:
This component aims to reduce market barriers for the private sector to provide modern energy access through solar home systems and targets (i) poorer households and small businesses in areas that cannot afford to connect to mini-grid services; (ii) households and businesses in these areas that are not sufficiently close to a mini-grid to be economically connected; (iii) isolated villages and smaller settlements where mini-grids do not make economic sense; and (iv) nomadic pastoralists whose livelihoods do not lend themselves to a fixed electricity connection. This component will fund a range of market-building supply- and demand-side interventions in response to these challenges. The proposed intervention includes: Seed and result based grants, consumer awareness and quality assurance.
Component 2: Analytic work for enabling electrification through Solar Powered / Hybrid Minigrids
This component will support the mini-grid sector in Somaliland. this component is expected to include the following activities: (i) Detailed geospatial mapping, (ii) Review of property rights and land issues pertaining to energy infrastructure investment, (iii) Pre-feasibility studies for hybridization, (iv) Pre-feasibility studies for greenfield (new) sites identified in geospatial mapping, (v) Developing structuring options for the financing, operation, and ownership of new mini-grids; and (vi) Defining legal, institutional and financing arrangements for developing minigrids.
Component 3: Technical Assistance, Capacity Building and Project Management
This component will support a range of activities to strengthen the capacity of the Ministry and overall energy sector management, power and access planning, and provides support for project management/implementation, including staffing of the PIU.
Under component 2, the project will support mini grid sector in Somaliland. Mini-grids are an economically viable option for providing clean and affordable electricity for rural, urban and peri urban Somaliland. There are, however, significant information gaps regarding the status of the mini-grids, including profiles of incumbent operators (number of customers, hours of service, tariffs, connection costs, generation technology, quality of service metrics, expansion plans), and identification of appropriate greenfield sites for new mini-grid installations. Much could also be done to improve the existing services provided by incumbent operators, including helping to bring on additional generation technology, greening existing technology mix through hybridization, modernizing business models including through the use of smart and/or pre-paid metering technology, and reducing the losses in the distribution system. Furthermore, there is significant scope to create an interconnected grid network with existing isolated mini-grids and also support the development of new mini-grid sites throughout the country though the information available on existing mini-grids is scant, even though they are the default energy provider throughout the country.
Yet, mini-grids should be deployed where they are the least-cost electrification method. Minigrids are mostly suited for rural towns/larger villages that: (a) are relatively remote and therefore unlikely to be served by the national grid; (b) are relatively densely populated; and (c) have expected loads that justify the mini-grid investments as opposed to deploying individual household systems. This usually requires a certain size (for example, 100 households plus) and sufficient existing or potential business and institutional loads. Mini-grid potential should ideally be mapped through a least-cost electrification plan and its viability confirmed through detailed feasibility studies. Although mini-grids are typically applied in remote locations, sometimes they can be used as a temporary solution (pre-electrification) in areas where the grid may eventually arrive. In that case, the mini-grids should apply technical standards that would allow future interconnection with the main grid.
Given the limited resources available under the overall project and the activities currently underway by other donors, this component will focus on complementary analytical work to begin filling the information gaps in the mini-grid space. This work will focus on better understanding the current mini-grid landscape, preparing pre-feasibility studies for improving performance and quality of service at existing mini-grid sites, and laying the analytical groundwork for future financing of new mini-grid sites and establishing mini-grid market context and enabling environment for investment activities.
To help address these challenges, the Government of Somaliland with support from the World Bank has allocated fund to support studies and analytic work for enabling electrification through Solar Powered / Hybrid Mini-grids. Parts of this funds are intended to procure consultancy service to undertake detailed geospatial mapping in order to come up with a more comprehensive inventorying of the current mini-grid situation, identify potential future sites, and estimate future location-specific demand.
The GoSL now seeks to competitively select a firm or consortium of firms (the “consultant”) with demonstrative expertise and experience to undertake the scope of work outlined below.
The scope of work encompasses the preparation of a GIS database of relevant layers and a geospatial least-cost electrification options analysis for use by the government in preparation of electrification strategy and investment pipeline for minigrids in Somaliland. The detailed geospatial analysis will consider, based on good practice and international experience, possible least-cost options for electrification, provide a sound strategic basis to implement systematically staged grid extensions and the deployment of off-grid technologies (mini-grids and standalone systems) powered by cost-effective renewable energy supply where appropriate, and indicative investment requirements for on-grid and off-grid access delivery modalities.
It is important to note that this work will produce thorough assessment analysis of the electricity services and options that could be provided based on the information shared by the Government and electricity service providers. Further detailed site-specific analysis and recommendations will be conducted by the country authorities when determining specific vulnerability, risk and mitigation actions for cost-effective renewable energy supply, as and when they decide to pursue further action. This work will rely on cross country experiences and international best practices for the analysis.
The work shall comprise the following essential elements:
- Data gathering and validation, as appropriate, for a detailed least-cost electrification options analysis. Using data collected by the consultant through the relevant ministries, power utilities, and relevant stakeholders, present a multi-layer digitized data framework comprised of GIS inputs broadly encompassing but not limited to: (i) where the people without access and other potential beneficiaries are – locations of priority service delivery facilities such as schools, health clinics, administrative centers, major productive load centers including mining locations; (ii) digitized representation of existing and planned High-Voltage (HV) and Medium Voltage (MV) networks and lines from the bulk supply delivery points; (iii) digitized representation of available renewable resources allowing the exploration of non-fossil fuel based electrification options. The multiple data layers are to be assembled and prepared from best readily available sources.
- Analysis of GIS least-cost electrification options. Using data layers prepared above within a least-cost geospatial planning analysis, potential design option that comprehensively address nationwide electrification (via proposed grid expansion, isolated networks and standalone systems) over the term short, medium and long term are assessed by optimizing potential technical solutions and estimating the corresponding costs of providing universal electricity access. The analysis shall be structured to reflect the power master plan and the Government’s sector priorities for regional and national development through 2030 and generate indicative investment financing requirements for the next five years (2020-2024) along with approximate requirements through 2030.
- Pre-feasibility study for hybridization, operational enhancement and densification of brownfield (existing) minigrid sites; and pre-feasibility studies for green field (new sites) identified in geospatial mapping. This will also include (a) a review of property rights and land issues pertaining to energy infrastructure investment; (b) developing structuring options for financing, operations and ownership of new minigrids; and (c) defining the legal, institutional and financing arrangements to developing minigrids in Somaliland.
3. Scope of work
The Consultant shall organize the scope of work along the following tasks and corresponding outputs:
Task 1 – Data collection and preparation of GIS data layers
The Consultant shall collect, compile, review and analyze the requisite best and readily available data from the electricity service providers and other publicly available data sources and undertake preparation for all supporting GIS data layers that are required to develop a detailed geospatial analysis of potential options least-cost electrification.
The digitized data layers will broadly encompass, at a minimum, but not be limited to:
- Location data of potential beneficiaries of electrification and productive load centers – residential, institutional, agricultural, industrial and commercial. This would include household spatial settlement patterns, population density, extent of spatial nucleation across and within settlements;
- Location data of all existing and/or operational mini grid power stations including the type of energy (wind, solar, geothermal, hydropower and biomass)
- Location data of priority service delivery facilities such as schools, health facilities, water supply points, administrative centers, and major trade/market centers;
- Location data of large demand centers, including mining loads and centers of agricultural production and transformation;
- Digitized representation of HV and MV networks and lines, the national grid system and its components – substation and transformer etc., and the main bulk supply delivery points – existing and planned;
- Data on renewable energy resource availability, at each demand load center, including wind, solar, geothermal, hydropower and potential biomass from crop residue;
- Socio-economic data derived from both publicly available and confidential geospatial market intelligence shared by companies and key industry associations (including mobile/ mobile money operators, food/beverage, non-durable household products, appliances, etc.);
- Data on roads, terrain, and water bodies;
- Current electricity service providers (Generation capacity, number of customers, hours of service, tariffs, connection costs, generation technology, quality of service metrics, expansion plans)
- Other socio-economic indicators, for instance, poverty rate variation data and night lights data.
Specifically, in this task the Consultant shall review, collect and assess the availability and quality of GIS data from potential sources, readily accessible in country and outside, including national agencies such as the ministry of planning; Ministry of Energy and Minerals, other Departments/Ministries/state ministries, and review data that might be available through previous activities and key reports. The Consultant should also review and supplement nationally available geo-referenced data with relevant information from international sources (such as Google Earth, OpenStreetMap, etc.) or satellite/over-flight imagery.
The output of this task shall include all the basic GIS layers needed to support the analysis undertaken, consolidated with metadata, and shared in accordance with Annex A. Digitized and stylized representation of the data layers should also be prepared and presented within a preliminary report.
Task 2 – Spatial characterizations of population settlement concentrations, nucleation patterns, and indicative capex per new connection (urban and rural)
In this Task the Consultant shall represent the spatial settlement patterns of population, and determine the population residing within 5, 10, and 25 km of MV network infrastructure for the years 2019 (baseline) and 2022.
The consultant will also assess global estimates of Electrification Master plans and regional variations for unit cost of new connections – MV, LV and service drops, connections, metering and household wiring – to estimate the incremental marginal capex for new connections as the MV network is systematically extended and LV reticulation undertaken thereof to connect new customers in the immediate-near-term.
The output of this task shall include: (i) population headcounts, and average settlement density (per sq. km), respectively within a geospatial radius of 5, 10, 25 km of MV infrastructure for the years 2019 (baseline), and xxxx (based on estimates provided by the Census/Statistics Bureau as well as electric utilities); and (ii) indicative estimates of average capex for new connections at the margin for the unconnected urban beneficiaries and for beneficiaries in rural areas; in light of the settlement patterns and density characteristics estimated in this task. Outputs should be presented within a preliminary report.
Task 3 – Development of model for estimates for least-cost electrification options analysis
The Consultant shall establish GIS-based least-cost electrification planning model that comprehensively addresses, at a detailed level, grid densification for urban areas, grid extension for rural areas, as well as complementary off-grid access delivery modalities – including cost effective renewable energy options if any – and that together are the implementation blocks of a systematically staged and coordinated electrification rollout program at national level
The model shall compare different technologies and electricity supply options (technical and economic viability) and estimate indicative costs for electrification at each demand load center (investment and operating), including planned national grid-based medium voltage network extensions, off-grid applications including expansion of existing isolated networks and supply, development of new mini-grids and supply, and deployment of individual household or institutional systems, using renewable energy as appropriate and as much as possible. The tool should facilitate quick turn around and updating of the potential electrification options and serve as a rapid response tool to address the impact of changes in key input parameters.
Open technologies are encouraged to facilitate knowledge transfer; however, the Consultant shall list any licenses needed to ensure the functionality of the GIS planning model and provide estimated costs for acquiring the licenses for use by the Somaliland Government.
Task 4 – Potential least-cost options for grid-based densification and extension
The Consultant shall consider generally which unelectrified loads may be best served by connecting to existing isolated mini-grids, via planned grid extension, densification or intensification, and identify options for least-cost grid expansion and connections, including the proposed grid location and prioritization. This shall include analysis of isolated network systems and shall compare the options of extending and upgrading, or connecting to the existing grid, or alternative solutions. The consultant should guide the country authority where there is a need for further detailed site-specific analysis and recommendations when determining specific vulnerability, risk and mitigation actions for cost-effective renewable energy supply, as and when they decide to pursue further action.
The analysis in this task shall be based on a spatial analysis using GIS data of settlement patterns and demand indicators, combined with existing infrastructure and supply considerations. It shall consider, at a minimum, population density, projected demand, affordability, proximity to grid, ability to pay, and existing strategies and policies.
The electricity connections and the possible demand of potential beneficiaries and productive loads currently without grid electricity service should be estimated at each demand load center. General demand analysis for residential as well as non-residential customers/productive uses should be undertaken and presented in aggregation and separately.
An additional output of this analysis shall be an estimate of spatially identified areas and clustered loads outside the reach of the proposed main grid, which will be used to inform the analysis for building new isolated networks (mini-grids) and individual systems in off-grid locations (Task 5).
Task 5 – Potential least-cost options for isolated networks (mini-grids) and standalone systems
The Consultant shall undertake appropriate analysis for identifying potential least-cost configurations, sizing, and operating regimes for the proposed isolated network systems (minigrids) that are not connected to existing and proposed national grid.
This analysis shall evaluate the potential of cost-effective renewable energy supply options locally available (as indicated by resource maps, etc.), such as solar PV, storage, mini-hydro, wind, geothermal and hybrid combinations thereof. The consultant should guide the country authority where there is a need for further detailed site-specific analysis and recommendations to be conducted by the country authorities when determining specific vulnerability, risk and mitigation actions for cost-effective renewable energy supply, as and when they decide to pursue further action.
The Consultant shall further assess potential least-cost options for electricity service provision in areas proposed as off-grid and indicate which may have sufficient demand to justify mini-grid installations, and which could be better served by individual residential or institutional systems while privileging a minimal unit connection cost.
The outputs of this task shall generally characterize and include the indicative costs for each identified system. This analysis should explicitly consider the potential for mini-grid and standalone systems to serve as stop-gap solutions for areas where grid connections may be planned but are expected to take longer.
Task 6 – Sensitivity analysis
The Consultant shall undertake selectively sensitivity analysis to examine the robustness of the model’s key outputs to changes in key input assumptions and policy parameters. This analysis will examine the sensitivity of selected high-level outputs of the options analysis to different technology and supply costs, standards for service, reliability and resilience, timing of roll-out, and other policy variables.
The Consultant shall submit the preliminary results to the Government for discussion and revision.
Task 7 – Capacity building & implementation arrangements
The Consultant shall transfer any non-proprietary models utilized in this assignment to the government.
The Consultant shall conduct necessary training during the assignment, aimed at professional staff, to familiarize them with the GIS data layers prepared, the overall capabilities of models utilized, the methodology and analysis framework for updating the geospatial analysis in the future, and key variables for sensitivity analysis. The Consultant shall ensure that training participants are fully trained to independently operate and extend the model in the future for analytical and decision-making purposes.
The consultant will support the government in identifying the appropriate institutional and organizational arrangements such that the GIS database is maintained and regularly updated, and the GIS electrification planning exercise can be replicated in the future. This involves identifying (i) where/with which organization the national power sector GIS database will reside, (ii) the arrangements by which stakeholders will regularly update relevant layers of and content within the database, and (iii) which organization will house the electrification planning models and have the responsibility to replicate the geospatial electrification planning exercise in the future. Recommendations should be included in the draft final report.
Finally, the Consultant shall also share best practices regarding the incorporation of GIS data into distribution operations, for example, when new MV extensions are implemented. This knowledge transfer shall be the focus of a workshop to be organized in partnership with government counterparts.
Task 8 – Reporting and data transfer
The Consultant shall prepare the draft final report, documenting in appropriate detail, the methodological framework and key assumptions, results of the analysis as called for in the tasks delineated above, and recommendations. Taking into account comments and feedback received from the Government, the Consultant shall revise the draft report and finalize it for delivery to the government.
In coordination with the government the consultant will organize a stakeholders’ workshop where the results and analysis are presented. The Consultant shall also support workshops to discuss the key assumptions and scenarios underpinning the analytical framework. Finally, the Consultant shall support the dissemination efforts such as producing a separate summary report on outcomes of this activity that would highlight lessons learned and best practices, to ensure learnings are carried forward.
The consultant shall also transfer to the government the complete and comprehensive set of GIS data layers developed during this assignment. The consultant must ensure that these key datasets are shared in accordance with Annex A.
Task 9 – Visualization of Scenario Analysis Results
The Consultant will develop for the government a visualization tool, which will include the following functionalities:
- Allows users to visualize all data layers used as input to the analysis (grid infrastructure existing and planned, population distribution or structures dataset, location of public facilities and major demand centers, resource potential throughout the country, road network, etc.);
- Allows users to display a “structure electrification access” layer, zoom-in on a structure to understand if structure is electrified or not;
- Allows users to display a “structure supply options” layer, zoom-in on a structure to understand the least cost supply option for the structure as well as investment needs and levelized cost of electricity;
- Allows users to display “village-level or settlement level least-cost supply options” layer whereby users zoom-in on and select a village; information regarding the village should be shown, including population size, distance to grid, distance to road, cost to electrify customers, capacity requirements, energy demand, number of people with access, and number of people to be electrified via SHS, mini-grid, and grid; and
- Ability to download results of the analysis.
The source of the code used to develop the tool will be made available to the ministry of energy team together with the guidelines discussed and agreed upon by both the government and the consultant, to allow other users and developers to build upon it. The ministry of Energy team will consider uploading this visualization tool to energydata.info pending approval and clearance from the Government counterparts.
4. Study Conduct
At all times, the Consultant shall work under the guidance of the government who will coordinate as and when appropriate with other government counterparts.
Consultant team members are expected to be available for key presentations at two workshops (presenting interim and final reports) and during at least three training sessions for relevant energy planners in Somaliland. The locations of the workshops and trainings are to be determined by the government in consultation with the consultant.
5. Deliverables and outputs
The assignment will be carried out over an eight-month period, approximately. The table below shows expected deliverables, indicative timeline, and payment schedule.
|Deliverables||Due from start (cumulative weeks)||Payment*
(% of budget)
|Inception mission** and report
Summarizing initial findings and a detailed work program. Should flag any key issues to be addressed that may pose challenges to the work, including data availability, source, quality, validity, cost, methodology, and timing. A key output shall be the Consultant’s assessment of data availability and proposed approach for data collection.
|Initial Capacity Building||10 weeks||15%|
|Interim Results Report
Documenting outputs of Tasks 1 – 3
|Draft geospatial estimated Least-cost rollout options report
Documenting findings of analysis and recommendations of Tasks 4 – 6
|Capacity Building & Workshop (Tasks 7-8)||28 weeks||–|
|Final report (including Task 9-11 and all necessary annexes)||32 weeks||20%|
**If and to the extent key data inputs are not available in digitized format on the existing MV infrastructure in place and for the existing isolated networks (mini-grids), the consultant shall be prepared to train designated technical staff – during the Inception mission – for network data capture of MV infrastructure not yet digitized and available for this assignment. The projected timeline in the table above is predicated on the assumption of expectation that the designated technical staff can satisfactorily complete that activity within approximately 6 weeks from date of training to enable the Consultant to undertake the analysis required to deliver the interim report. The projected timeline to completion of the report and subsequent schedule will be adjusted appropriately at the time.
6. Governance and Contracting arrangements
As stated above, the consultant will be selected and contracted by the GoSL. The implementation of this work will be under a direct oversight of The Ministry of Energy & Minerals (MoEM) ), GoSL The GoSL will review and approve the Implementation Guidelines and any changes to implementation procedures, as well as any periodic reports submitted by the consultant. Required qualifications and experience of the firm and proposed team
This assignment requires the involvement of an experienced and seasoned Consultant team capable of interacting effectively with top echelon Government officials, senior management and professional staff of key sector institutions, development partners, and as appropriate other energy service providers for electricity access in the public and private sectors. I.
The Consultant shall present evidence of adequate practical experience of the firm in the following areas:
- Preparation of the various geo-referenced digitized data layers for key parameters – technical, economic – required to undertake the geospatial analysis initiation in this assignment.
- Expertise and experience with use of distribution network geospatial planner and geospatial analysis platform to identify potential options for least cost electricity rollout on grid – MV and downstream by sub-locations – and access scale up in the corresponding off-grid space within each sub-location, especially in sub-Saharan Africa context is a plus.
- Technical, economic, screening of grid-based and off-grid electrification technologies; electricity demand projection geospatially by sub-locations.
- Proposals shall clearly highlight the qualifications and experience of the team leader and team members of direct relevance to the conduct of the tasks outlined under the scope of work, as these dimensions will be heavily weighted in the technical evaluation of the proposals submitted. Personnel in the Consultant’s team should together have demonstrably proven in-depth experience in addressing the full range of functional and technical expertise outlined in this TOR.
The key functional skills are outlined below. While the number of members proposed can be fewer than four, they must together demonstrably highlight proven experience spanning the full range of expertise identified:
- Team leader – He/she is expected to be seasoned with significant experience and an established and recognized track record in leading teams in undertaking comparable efforts in other countries. The team leader must have effective communication and writing skills; and at least a Master’s degree in engineering or equivalent, with a minimum of 8 years of related experience in a leadership role, internationally.
- Lead GIS Electrification Rollout Planner – Highly experienced in national electrification rollout program planning in developing country contexts, setting up and using state of the art GIS-based rapid planning platform tools of spatial analysis to optimize priority sequencing of MV grid extensions, and LV reticulation and connections; extensive knowledge and experience in renewable energy technology, off-grid electrification technologies and delivery options (including mini-grids, individual residential or institutional systems), of off-grid electrification. He/she should have proven knowledge and expertise in electricity demand projections, indicative least-cost economic analysis, and excellent verbal and written communication skills. He/she should have a Master’s degree at a minimum in engineering; science or a related field, with a minimum of 10 years of relevant work experience post graduate degree.
- Geographer/GIS Data Specialist – highly experienced in addressing the range of issues typically encountered in the process of identifying and acquiring and assembling the relevant geo referenced data (data sets) from relevant national agencies; as well as the process and techniques for upstream data preparation and validation supplemented from international sources, to support a least cost analysis for electricity access; encompassing geo-referenced data inputs especially for technical and demographic parameters to support the least cost analysis of network expansion options and supply options. He/she must also be well versed in the process and techniques for upstream data preparation and validation, in particular where critical gaps exist in national data – such as poor resolution of spatial data, or quality issues are a concern. The GIS data specialist should be experienced in supplementing appropriate geospatial data from international sources as well as utilizing triangulation techniques to develop the best available geo-referenced data set. He/she should have at least a Master’s degree in geography, engineering, planning or a related discipline and at least 8 years of relevant experience.
The CVs of key staff assigned to cover the skills categories identified above should clearly demonstrate the relevant experience of each team member by task assigned. Submissions should also highlight directly relevant and specific experience in SSA country contexts that the team collectively brings to this assignment including highlighting the relevant qualifications and expertise of the local counterpart firm and the professionals assigned to this Consultancy. Technical proposals should also indicate the person day level of effort for each proposed team member in each of the categories identified above; as well as a breakdown by home-based time and field time.
Annex A (Activity I): Special requirements for data
Confidentiality and Access to Information
Data should be provided to the Government in at least one machine readable, non-proprietary open file format that complies with the Open Definition. Tabular formats such as CSV and tabdelimited text, or geospatial formats such as Shapefile or GeoJSON satisfy this requirement. Excel, STATA, or other proprietary data formats may optionally be used in addition to at least one open format. PDF and Word are not acceptable formats for data.
Data should be provided according to recognized standards and encodings whenever possible. Data standards are available for many types of data; for instance, GTFS for transport data, or DDI for microdata. The Open Geospatial Consortium documents standards for a broad range of applications and disciplines.
Data should be provided in disaggregated form, i.e., the smallest or original unit of observation.
Essential metadata should be provided for all data products. Core metadata requirements for each dataset are:
- Dataset name or title
- Dataset description (with project description, original data use)
- Date(s) of observation or collection
- Study area or place
- Data producers (names and organizations of the data collection team)
- Citations as appropriate
- Periodicity (hourly, daily, monthly)
- Unit(s) of measurement
- Variable descriptions
- For geospatial datasets: Map projection, Bounding box (decimal latitude and longitude), Coordinate reference system, Vector or raster format
Data deliverables produced under this TOR shall be transmitted electronically to the government by one of the following modes:
- Shared via a secure, file sharing platform at the directive of the Project Coordinator;
- Emailed to the Project Coordinator, if file size is not a limiting factor.
Data deliverables will be considered satisfactory when the Project Coordinator provides written acknowledgement of receipt of all data deliverables.
 Note that the indicative cost estimates will be prepared based on local data collected from utilities as well as recent publications, and relevant global comparators used for benchmarking. Any detailed cost estimates and implementation planning (such as feasibility studies, etc.) will need to be undertaken separately by the relevant Government partner
 Key reports that have been recently updated/prepared include: Power Sector Master Plan Study; Off grid market study; etc
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